Debt Look Back Model: NIFTY 500 vs Debt

Data through 28 Sept 2026 · Latest close 22,232.15.

7,866 official observations from 01 Jan 1995, sourced directly from Nifty Indices.

Daily refresh scheduled for 11 pm IST. Last successful check: 29 Sept 2026, 04:07 IST. Publication follows validation and deployment; scheduled runs may be delayed.

Debt return (% per year)Look-back periodHold until

Equity win rate

72.40%

1794 entry dates beat debt

Debt win rate

27.60%

684 entry dates beat equity

Entry dates compared

2478

0 break-even · 2479 total data points

28 Sept 2016 to 28 Sept 2026. Win rates exclude the end-date point, which has no holding period. Each available entry date has equal weight.

The break-even curve

Below the dashed line, equity beat 7% debt. Above it, debt did better. All investments are assumed to be held until 28 Sept 2026.

NIFTY 500 index levelDebt break-even entry level

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Inspect an entry date

Historical outcomeEquity better

Entry index level7,514.95

Break-even entry level11,297.51

Equity CAGR11.45%

Holding period: 10.01 years. Returns for periods under one year are annualised and can appear unusually large.

Date-by-date results

Most recent first. Calculations use full precision; displayed values are rounded.

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NIFTY 500 versus 7% debt, held until 28 Sept 2026
Entry date	Index level	Years held	Break-even level	Equity CAGR	Outcome
28 Sept 2026	22,232.15	0	22,232.15	—	End date
25 Sept 2026	22,603.5	0.01	22,219.79	-86.67%	Debt better
24 Sept 2026	22,552.6	0.01	22,215.67	-72.91%	Debt better
23 Sept 2026	22,935.1	0.01	22,211.55	-89.69%	Debt better
22 Sept 2026	22,794.2	0.02	22,207.44	-78.10%	Debt better
21 Sept 2026	22,860.05	0.02	22,203.32	-76.60%	Debt better
18 Sept 2026	22,840.55	0.03	22,190.98	-62.67%	Debt better
17 Sept 2026	22,654.65	0.03	22,186.86	-46.46%	Debt better
16 Sept 2026	22,532	0.03	22,182.75	-33.47%	Debt better
15 Sept 2026	22,477.45	0.04	22,178.64	-26.52%	Debt better
11 Sept 2026	22,866.5	0.05	22,162.2	-45.34%	Debt better
10 Sept 2026	22,952.35	0.05	22,158.09	-47.61%	Debt better
09 Sept 2026	22,958.75	0.05	22,153.99	-46.09%	Debt better
08 Sept 2026	23,106.1	0.05	22,149.88	-50.52%	Debt better
07 Sept 2026	23,156.2	0.06	22,145.78	-50.73%	Debt better

How the model works

Years held = actual days between the entry date and end date ÷ 365.
Break-even entry level = end-date index level ÷ (1 + annual debt return)^{years held}.
Equity CAGR = (end-date index level ÷ entry index level)^{1 ÷ years held} − 1.
An entry level below the break-even curve favoured equity. An entry level above it favoured debt. Equal levels are break-even.
The look-back period uses calendar years ending on the selected date. Only available official observations are included, without interpolation.
Each entry is a separate lump-sum investment held to the same end date. Win rates include ties in the denominator and exclude the end date.
Debt is an assumed constant annual compounded return, not the realised performance of a debt fund. Taxes, fees and dividends are not separately modelled.
The complete history uses NIFTY 500 price-index observations published by Nifty Indices, including the 1 January 1995 base value. No spreadsheet values or interpolated prices are used. Each available date has equal weight.
The refresh adds missing trading days, checks the source response and retains the last valid dataset on failure. Weekends and holidays do not create new closing values. This uses the price index, not the total-return index.

This is backward-looking analysis. Historical win rates are not forecasts or probabilities of future outperformance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.